Bayesian Shift Logo

We shift wealth from financial markets to nonprofit organisations and charitable initiatives.

Our Business

We trade in financial markets, generating profits which we redirect to good causes. We give the vast majority of our company profits to charities and socially impactful organisations.

Our automated systems combine machine learning and prior knowledge of the markets to predict opportunity together with uncertainty, delivering high return on company capital. The business is wholly funded by this return.

Our Ethos

We believe that the financial industry is grossly overcompensated compared to other jobs of similar academic and technical requirements. In a playing field with so many wealthy companies and individuals, exploiting market inefficiencies leads to large profits which filter down the organization in the form of extreme bonuses and high salaries. This system takes highly skilled individuals out of roles that can benefit society more directly.

We wish to take a more direct approach - take a fair and reasonable salary, but eschew the extreme bonuses. Instead we will redirect the excess trading profits to social causes where it will have an exponential effect. The focus of our business is on maximising social impact, rather than profit - and we hope to set an example for the industry.

Transparency is of the highest value to us - we want to be held accountable to our donation goals and our investment sources. We are entirely funded by company capital, and will only consider external investment with a high level of discretion.

Our Impact

Since our business began trading in 2019, we have made profits of over £2 million into 2023, with a current gross annual return of around 40%. Of this profit, we have redistributed £520,000 to socially impactful organisations, comprising £370,000 in donations to charities and £150,000 in pledged low-cost financing for impactful initiatives. We have retained £1,000,000 of profit in the business for reinvestment, and eventual donation. We have paid roughly £34,000 per director, per year in dividends.

We are still developing our approach to giving, and currently focus on the areas of climate change and inequality.

Our beneficiaries thus far include

Our Tax Contribution

We make no effort to avoid taxation and pay full corporate tax every year on our profits. We believe this is one of the most important ways to contribute to social impact. We are proud to have paid over £335,000 in tax to date.

We also strongly believe in the importance of tax transparency and make an effort to be transparent about our tax policy. We work with Fair Tax Mark in order to ensure we meet high standards in tax policy and disclosures, and publish details on this below.

Our Tax Policy and Disclosure Statement Last updated: January 2025

This statement of Fair Tax compliance was compiled in partnership with the Fair Tax Foundation (“FTF”) and certifies that Bayesian Shift Ltd (“the Company”) meets the standards and requirements of the FTFs UK Small Business Standard for the Fair Tax Mark certification.

Our Tax Policy

The Company is committed to paying all the taxes that we owe in accordance with the spirit of all tax laws that apply to our operations. We believe that paying our taxes in this way is the clearest indication we can give of being responsible participants in society. We will fulfil our commitment to paying the appropriate taxes that we owe by seeking to pay the right amount of tax, in the right place, and at the right time. We aim to do this by ensuring that we report our tax affairs in ways that reflect the economic reality of the transactions that we undertake during the course of our trade.

We will not seek to use those options made available in tax law, or the allowances and reliefs that it provides, in ways that are contrary to the spirit of the law. Nor will we undertake specific transactions with the sole or main aim of securing tax advantages that would otherwise not be available to us based on the reality of the trade that we undertake. The Company will never undertake transactions that would require notification to HM Revenue & Customs under the Disclosure of Tax Avoidance Schemes Regulations or participate in any arrangement to which it might be reasonably anticipated that the UK's General Anti-Abuse Rule might apply.

We believe tax havens undermine the UK's tax system. As a result, whilst we may trade with customers and suppliers genuinely located in places considered to be tax havens, we will not make use of those places to secure a tax advantage, and nor will we take advantage of the secrecy that many such jurisdictions provide for transactions recorded within them.

Our accounts and tax returns will be prepared in compliance with this policy and we will seek to provide all the information that users, including HM Revenue & Customs, might need to properly appraise our tax position.

Our Tax Disclosures

The average net profit before tax over the last three accounting periods ending on 31 March 2024 was £496,688. The expected tax charge on these average profits would be £104,304 (21.00%). In fact, our actual average current tax charge over this period was almost the same at £104,510 (21.04%). A couple of tax adjustments had arisen during the period which attributed to this slight difference, and these are explained below in the following current tax reconciliation with accompanying footnotes:

£
Average net profit before tax 496,688
Average expected corporation tax (21.00%) 104,304
1Expenses not deductible for tax purposes 189
2Depreciation in excess of capital allowances 17
Average current tax charge (21.04%) 104,510

As at 31 March 2024, the Company had no deferred tax assets or liabilities on its Statement of Financial Position; and had no movements in deferred tax expensed or credited to the Statement of Income and Retained Earnings.

1 Expenses not deductible for tax purposes – some business expenses, although entirely appropriate for inclusion in the accounts, are not allowed as a deduction against taxable income when calculating the tax liability. Examples of such expenses are non-staff entertaining.
2 Depreciation in excess of capital allowances – the accounting and tax treatments of fixed assets are different. For accounting, fixed assets are depreciated over their useful lives. For tax, there are specific rules on what can be claimed. These differences create a tax adjustment, which is only a timing difference. Eventually, the total depreciation in the accounts will match the total capital allowances in the tax returns. During the period under review, the tax treatment of our fixed assets was slightly less favourable than how we had accounted for them.

Our People

Mark Waddoups

Mark Waddoups, Co-Founder

Working at the intersection of state-of-the-art research and specific financial knowledge gives us a unique opportunity to drive real social change.

Mark worked as a derivatives trader for five years prior to jointly founding Bayesian Shift. Trading provided savings to begin the business, but also highlighted the pay imbalances between his colleagues and the general population. He wanted to take his skills and apply them in a way that benefits wider society.

He is interested in economics, politics, Bayesian modelling and software development. He lives in Glasgow and spends a lot of time in the mountains.

Tennessee Hickling, Co-Founder

I want to use my skills and energy to deliver broad benefits to society.

Tennessee is currently studying for a PhD in generative models in the presence of extremes at the University of Bristol. Past research experience includes novel inference techniques for sequential and graph data. He also has experience taking data analytics projects from PoC to production, having delivered a machine learning backed product to thousands of end users whilst working for an IT consultancy.

Founding Bayesian Shift provided a way to satisfy his passion for machine learning without sacrificing his social consciousness. Moving forward he has an interest in new economic models that can support innovation in a sustainable manner.

Tennessee

Contact Us

We are a UK-based, fully remote business. The best way to get in touch with us directly is via email.

Email Us

If mail correspondence is required, we can be reached via a managed mailbox service at

Bayesian Shift, 35 Ballards Lane, London, United Kingdom, N3 1XW